Hi Multis
It’s Sunday and that means the Overview Of The Week again. On Tuesday, I am leaving for Omaha for the Annual General Meeting of Berkshire Hathaway.
It’s the first time without Warren Buffett, but I am still looking forward to it. To be honest, the Berkshire AGM is OK to follow live, but you can probably follow it better through the livestream. The really fantastic thing about Omaha in that week is that everyone who means anything in investing is there and there are numerous events in the days around the AGM.
I have the honor of inviting you to two of those.
The first is one I organize with Pieter Slegers and Brian Feroldi. On Saturday evening from 8.15 pm to 10.15 pm in the speakeasy Howard & Fine, inside Moe & Curly’s Pub And Grill.
Please register if you want to come.
You can do that here.
I hope to see you there!
Secondly, my friend Vitaliy Katsenelson organizes a FREE BREAKFAST in Omaha on Sunday, May 3. He allowed me to invite every single one of you. Important: if you want to go, you have to let him know. No registration, no breakfast. But it’s totally free. Don’t wait too long, because, while there is a big capacity, I think it will be full fast. I will be there as well. You can register here.
One last announcement: since I will still be in Omaha next week, there will be no Overview Of The Week next Sunday.
Articles In The Past Weeks
This is the third article this week.
The first one was about ServiceNow.
In the second one, I combined the Best Buys Now and the additions to the Forever Portfolio. You can read that article here.
Memes Of The Week
Four memes this week. The first one plays on Bitcoin’s weak performance over the last year.
If you want to know why I’m a long-term investor, this is one of the reasons.
I also had to laugh with this one.
Flo shared this one about ServiceNow.
Interesting Podcasts Or Books
I listened to a very interesting Invest Like The Best podcast episode this week. The guest was Dylan Patel and if you want to have insights on the edge of AI and chips. You can listen to it here.
The markets in the past week
The Russell 2000 was up 0.36%, the S&P 500 0.55% and the Nasdaq 1.50%.
The Greed & Fear Index surged incredibly in the last weeks. It was at 9 on the 14th of April, now it’s already at 66, in Greed territory.
Quick Facts
1. An Exceptional Market?
This is a weird market. Despite Iran and the ensuing energy crisis, the indexes are at all-time highs. The fact that this is exceptional can be seen in this Bank of America chart.
A portfolio of 25% in stocks, bonds, commodities and cash is up 26%. That is the highest return since 1933, when the stock market was still suffering from the results of the Great Depression. That shows that these are not normal times. On the other hand, are there “normal” times in investing?
But at the same time, the fact that there’s a fast recovery after a crisis is not that exceptional. Look at this overview.
Investors often panic, but just focus on the long term, not the short term. Not that focusing on the long term is easy.
Now, just to be clear, the recovery has been remarkable. The S&P 500 is up 12.5% over the last four weeks and that was the 20th-biggest 4-week jump since 1950.
2. Tech? Tech! Well, Some Tech.
The S&P 500 at all-time highs is not that crazy if you see that the earnings estimates for this year and next year keep going up. But the crazy thing is that almost all of the estimate upgrades come from three sectors: energy, materials and tech.
As you can see, tech is very resilient, with EPS estimates up already 11% this year and 15.1% for next year.
But of course, tech is divided into multiple subdomains. If you look at the companies that
As you can see, Micron alone is responsible for 51% of the EPS revision for the S&P 500. That’s totally nuts and it shows in what exceptional times we live. Add Broadcom and you already have 61%.
And it’s not just Micron. Semiconductors now make up 14% of the Total US stock market cap. That’s up 3x in three years and double as much as during the dotcom bubble. Crazy times.
3. Charlie Munger and Howard Marks
I’m showing this X post completely, as it is important.
An overwhelming majority of people are focused on the short term, even if they think they are not.
One of the biggest investing mistakes you can make is selling winners too early. That’s why I always err on the side of holding too long, not selling too early. Selling too early can feel right over the short term but can be a huge way of missing out on the best investment of your life.
4. Earnings In The Upcoming Week
Normally, I do this at the end of the article, but this time, I put it here, as the upcoming earnings week is pretty crazy, especially on Wednesday, when Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet all publish their results at the same moment. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Brookfield, and KLA Corporation also report at the same time. Apple and Mastercard report on Thursday and Spotify, Visa and Robinhood report on Tuesday.
Source
What a week! In total, 172 S&P 500 companies report in the upcoming week, so I think it’s fair to say this is the most important earnings week for the market when it comes to Q1 2026 earnings.
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