11 Comments
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Investing Insights's avatar

What a superb post, Thank You for detailed note!!

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AlphaDoc's avatar

Been invested in TTD since 2017. Watched it morph into a wonderful company. I wonder if the management issues could have been better foreseen by Green. We all knew it would continue to grow and they still don't have a COO. Aswath Damodaran talks about having the right CEO to match a company's corporate lifecycle, Steve Jobs who was lucky to have a Tim Cook, I think we need one here (not to replace Green but to operationally right the ship). Any more thoughts on this or do you think that the re-org activity caused a couple of dropped assignments and hence the miss? Thank you, Kris.

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Kris's avatar

It's one of the thoughts I had as well. Everything went well for the past 6 years without a COO, but Green now feels this is needed. I also wonder how much it has to do with co-founder and former CTO Dave Pickles leaving in September 2023. Having a co-founder at your side often really helps to get good feedback and that may be what Jeff's missing now. I think Green's got everything to make it as a CEO of a giant, but yes, he needs someone to execute next to him and an outstanding COO would be welcome. Happy that he seems to realize it as well.

As for your other question (about the re-org), I think it's rather the other way around. That there were missed opportunities and therefore they did the re-org.

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Ramon's avatar

Thanks for elaborating Kris! I bought the dip!

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Compound & Fire's avatar

Hey Kris, great article! Question: "The big difference between GAAP and non-GAAP is still caused by the stock grant plan for Jeff Green, but that's stopping in 2025".

The current stock grant plan will end, but they didnt communicate there wont be a new one. Did they?

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DIY Investor's avatar

Thanks for the write-up. Just DMed you about TTD. Could you please take a look.

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Ronak Shah's avatar

Hey Kris

Thanks for your insights. I went through your posts on TTD and have been following along this company for 2+ years. Been in and out, tactically to see the results. And it’s been quite pleasing to see it grow. I really wonder, while not being a subscriber yet, how you only have 3 shares. Specially you’ve said multiple times you got in at split adjusted 20$. Kinda makes me question the long term commitment in terms of the skin in the game. Obviously, not everything is public, but if you can allude to the reason besides high valuation, would be great.

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Kris's avatar

Hi Ronak

Good question.

I sold my whole portfolio at the end of 2024 for tax reasons specific for Belgium. TTD was one of the biggest positions there and I made a good profit. Indeed, I first picked TTD at $19.5, but I made my position bigger over the years, so I averaged up.

After I sold my previous portfolio, I started the Forever Portfolio, but I bought back just three shares of TTD because I found them too expensive. There are no other reasons besides valuation.

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Ronak Shah's avatar

Thanks for your response. yes agreed the valuation is high. I love the founders passion and ok to pay a bit of a premium for a good founder led company with a growing moat.

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Jay Dee's avatar

Did you mean 300 shares or 3000 shares? Or really 3 shares? That is under $200 USD no? Have you bought more down here at $55-60? Thx and great article

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Kris's avatar

No, really 3, just as a tracking position because I thought the stock was way too expensive. I gave it a valuation score of 3/10 then.

And yes, I have added substantially now that it's much more attractive.

Also don't forget that investing is a process for me, not a momentary decision. I invest every two weeks.

In the past, before I sold my entire portfolio (see above), I had bought TTD shares probably over 50 times.

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