Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Steven Poelmans's avatar

I agree with your valuation assessment. Maybe also interesting to look at Fwd looking P/FCF; currently NVDA trades at 70x P/FCF. If you use current FCF estimates and a "bull" exit multiple of 60x P/FCF you arrive at a CAGR of 40% for the next 2 years. When using a "bear" exit multiple of 30x you arrive at CAGR of 0%. Any lower multiple seems unlikely to me considering the high growth rate. I like to think of it that the probable outcome is between those two numbers: 0% and 40% CAGR.

Expand full comment
1 more comment...

No posts