Hi Multis
The numbers from Celsius have been out now for a while and in a few weeks, probably around May 11, the company will release its Q1 2026 earnings. But the stock has come down substantially and that’s why I have asked David to have a look at the previous earnings.
As always, I have added and adapted to David’s output, so you can see this as a collab article.
The key numbers
Q4 2025 revenue came in at $721.6 million, up 117% year-over-year and beating analyst expectations by over 10%.
Year-over-year growth was primarily driven by the addition of Alani Nu, of course, but still, a beat by 10% is very strong.
Full-year 2025 revenue reached $2.52 billion, an 86% increase versus 2024.
That growth was largely driven by North America, where revenue increased 89.1% year-over-year. $1B came from Alani Nu. The other acquisition, Rockstar Energy, added $55.6 million, while the core Celsius brand grew 7.5% to $1.46 billion.
Q4 gross profit came in at $341.8 million, up year-over-year but down sequentially versus Q2 and Q3 but that’s not unusual, as there is some seasonality for energy drinks and, therefore, for gross profits.
If you don’t want to miss all the great Fiscal AI data, get 15% off here.
Full-year gross profit increased by $587 million to $1.27 billion, up from $680 million in 2024, up 86.7%.
The stock dropped after the earnings were released, but this was also the period when everything went down. The geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran were starting.
Multi-brand portfolio
Looking at the full-year market share, we can still see that Red Bull and Monster are on top of the market, but Ceclius remains strong in a third place. Alani Nu and Rockstar Energy maintained their Q3 positions into Q4, with market share remaining stable. Altogether, the combined portfolio controls just under 20% of the U.S. energy drink market.
Celsius remains well-positioned, expanding strategically without overextending. While it’s unlikely that Celsius will overtake Red Bull or Monster in the near term, it holds a unique advantage with its multi-brand portfolio.
Having a multi-branded portfolio has both advantages and disadvantages. Celsius must execute multiple marketing strategies, as each brand targets a distinct consumer segment.
While all products fall under the energy drink category, each brand targets a different demographic. On the other hand, the risk of becoming obsolete diminishes significantly with diversification.
Think here of the next new fad we see every year, that slowly fades into obscurity. Celsius can simply move within its product offering, ride the entire wave of new fads, and remove the old products from its lineup.
Not so for Red Bull and Monster; both have their flagship products and occasionally play with other varietuies.
Celsius has three different product lines to work with. Celsius itself is focused on a younger core of customers who are conscious about their health.
Alani Nu focuses on a female audience, with a strong emphasis on lifestyle and wellness.
And lastly, Rockstar, which focuses on a male audience, using high-energy, high-performance slogans. Psychology here is one of the extreme sports.
Having these three different lines can increase the overall marketing costs. This is something which is visible in the numbers.
Marketing and selling expenses increased by $200.6 million, driven by diverse campaigns totaling $76.6 million (notably “Live. Fit. Go”) and marketing focused on Alani Nu totaling $65 million.
Celsius wants to prioritize differentiation, which, in turn, increases costs because packaging must remain fresh and maintain its uniqueness and appeal.
I don’t see its marketing costs going down anytime soon. Developing brand awareness through marketing initiatives and expanding abroad will both need a big marketing push.
Combine this with different marketing campaigns for all the products in its portfolio, and the costs can only become higher in the near future.
The chart above highlights how the top three brands are currently competing in the market.
MULO (Multi-Outlet) includes channels such as grocery stores, mass retailers, and drugstores. It also includes convenience stores. Think of 7-Eleven, gas stations, and similar retail formats. Monster and Red Bull remain the category leaders, but Celsius (across its full portfolio) is steadily gaining share, as you can see.
Competition
Recently, Celsius stock went down after Costco Wholesale introduced Kirkland Signature energy drinks.
Nothing new under the sun, we might say. there are plenty of competitors. However this time it is slightly different. Costco is a US-based retailer that sells bulk goods at lower prices. Here, it is the same: Costco sells a lot of products under its private label, Kirkland Signature.
As you can see, Kirkland Signature energy drink has the same look as Celsius: white with colored banners featuring fruit images. The flavors? Similar to Celsius’s popular flavors. But the drink is much cheaper than Celsius.
But does it all matter? We often see new energy drink brands coming onto the market. It is not an easy market, and gaining traction often takes considerable time and investment.
I think it is too early to tell whether the new offering impacts Celsius’s top line. Celsius generated about 11% of its sales within Costco in 2025, a large number, but let’s not exaggerate. Implementing a new product does not mean it is doomed even within Costco. People still have brand loyalty or they don’t want to be seen with the “cheap knock-off” version. And many people are simply not aware of the product. See this X post, for example:
Numerous competitors have come and gone. The energy drinks market is growing rapidly and becoming increasingly attractive, enticing competitors to capture a share of it.
There was another worry as well. Iran bombed aluminum smelters in the Middle East and two major sites were seriously damaged. But the Middle East as a whole (not these two) are only responsible for 9% of the global supply. So, I think this fear is exaggerated.
If you are not a paying subscriber, the article ends here for you. I hope you enjoyed it. If you want to know if I would buy Celsius now, consider upgrading. One good idea might pay back the investment.