Adyen Dances the Wall Street Shuffle
Why 20% growth and 50% margins matter more than short-term consensus misses
Hi Multis
What first looked like another nosedive for a Potential Multibaggers stock turned out to be just a single-digit drop. Adyen initially dropped about 20% but right now, as I'm writing this, the stock is down 'just' 6%.
So, was something wrong, and especially, did it influence the long-term case for Adyen? Let’s first look at the numbers.
The Numbers
Net Revenue: +20% YoY to €1.09B, a missed of €15M or 1.4% vs. the consensus
EBITDA: €544M (+28% YoY), missed by €3M or 0.5% vs. the consensus
EBITDA Margin: 50% (up from 46% in H1 2024)
Net Income: €481M (+17% YoY), EPS €15.22 vs. €13.15 last year
Processed Volume: €649B, +5% YoY, or +23% excluding a big customer (this is CashApp, later more)
Digital Pillar: -9% YoY or +18% excluding Cash App
Unified Commerce: +31% YoY to €334M
Platforms: +55% YoY to €121M, +59% excluding eBay)
Free Cash Flow: €474M with 87% conversion ratio
Guidance: Full-year growth acceleration "unlikely"; expects growth in line with H1, so about 20%.
If you didn't know the consensus, you'd probably just say that Adyen delivered another strong quarter of 20% revenue growth and 50% EBITDA margins, which are both impressive at its size. But there was a big selloff initially.
Long-time Multis know I call this The Wall Street Shuffle: the game with the consensus numbers and meeting, missing or beating them. The short-term misses and stock moves, no matter how dramatic, are noise if the company's fundamentals are intact.
(You probably guessed it, but ChatGPT created this image)
And, yes, that's the case here for Adyen. The underlying business fundamentals are intact. So, in a way, I was sad when the stock started to climb during and after the earnings call, even if Adyen is already one of my biggest positions. I would have liked to add at lower prices.
The small miss against consensus and revised full-year guidance reflects external pressures rather than Adyen's problems. A handful of large Asian retailers selling into the U.S. market got hit by tariff changes in late Q2, as we all know. Since these happen to be significant Adyen customers, their slowdown knocked about 2 percentage points off Adyen's overall growth. Management expects this specific headwind to continue through the rest of the year. It kept its guidance for 2026, though.
The key point is that this impact is tied to the tariffs, not Adyen losing its competitive position or customers switching to competitors. Because that's the story I hear on social media platforms now: competition and commodization. It's neither of the two.
🔒 Premium Insight Ahead
You’ve just read the free portion of this in-depth breakdown. Want the full story?
👉 Why Adyen’s 20% growth and 50% margins are underappreciated
👉 How Cash App and tariffs distorted the narrative
👉 What Wall Street missed again.
👉 Why Adyen’s valuation is fair, maybe even cheap
👉 Plus: Adyen’s updated PM Quality Score and Valuation Score
Still just $479. Price goes up to $499 very soon.
Unlock the rest before the hike 👇